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美国并没有重建中国,原因有四个 [美国网贴]

过去25年来美国重建了中国吗?这可能和二战后美国帮忙重建德国和日本不一样。在吸取了一战结束后如何导致二战开端的惨痛历史教训后,美国变成了一个宽宏大量的胜利者,在战后帮忙其他国家重建。

The US did not ‘rebuild’ China. Here are four reasons why

美国并没有重建中国,原因有四个Did the US “rebuild China” over the past 25 years? Perhaps not in the same way that Germany and Japan were rebuilt with American aid after the second world war. Learning from the painful lessons of how the end of the first world war led to the beginning of the second, the US was a magnanimous victor, and helped to launch unparalleled prosperity in the post-war order.

过去25年来美国重建了中国吗?这可能和二战后美国帮忙重建德国和日本不一样。在吸取了一战结束后如何导致二战开端的惨痛历史教训后,美国变成了一个宽宏大量的胜利者,在战后帮忙其他国家重建。

For that, the world should be grateful, even if US actions were partly shaped by cold war considerations.

对此,世界应该感谢美国,虽然美国的行为部分是因为冷战考量。

If the Chinese civil war had ended differently, the US might well have supported a Nationalist China with a massive reconstruction programme bigger than the Marshall Plan. But that was not meant to be – and what US aid there was went to its major foe, instead of its key ally, in the Pacific war.

如果中国内战是不一样的结局,美国可能会帮助国民党的中国进行大规模的重建,规模可能超过马歇尔计划。但命中注定不是这样,所以美国的援助最终给了其在太平洋战场上的主要对手日本,而不是给自己的关键盟友中国。

Engagement by the US government and companies in China has been driven by political and economic calculations – containing the Soviet Union and exploiting China’s cost advantages. While there is no doubt that the US contributed to China’s economic development, the overstretched claim that it was the US which rebuilt China can be refuted on many fronts.

美国政府和企业与中国的交往主要是受政治和经济计算驱动——牵制苏联以及利用中国的成本优势。虽然美国确实对中国经济发展作出了贡献,但是美国重建了中国这种说法是可以被反驳的。

First, it’s important to note that the US-China relationship is mutually beneficial. Just as the US played a part in Chinese development, so China, too, helped boost US competitiveness. US companies could have stayed at home or gone elsewhere. They made China their key manufacturing location only after determining that no other country could offer the same benefits. Many US firms consolidated their supply chains from other Asian locations to China.

首先,中美关系是互惠互利的。美国对中国发展起到了促进作用,中国也帮助美国增加了竞争力。美国企业可以待在国内或者去其他国家。在发现其他国家无法像中国那样提供同样利益的时候,所以才决定将中国作为主要的制造业基地:芏嗝拦笠到挥谄渌侵薰业墓┯α匆埠喜⒌街泄。

How big a role did US technology play in China’s rise? No doubt, Chinese companies learned from their foreign partners. But US companies were not alone among foreign firms in China – many Asian and European firms were there first. And US companies were not leaders in some fields, such as the auto industry, where German and Japanese companies are stronger. Attributing China’s rise to US technology is a very bold claim, bordering on the delusional.

美国技术在中国的崛起中扮演了多大的角色?毫无疑问,中国企业向外国合作伙伴学习。但是除了美国企业,中国还有其他的外国企业:芏嘌侵藓团分奁笠底钕鹊执镏泄。美国企业在某些领域也并非领导者,比如汽车产业,德国和日本企业更加强大。所以将中国的崛起归功于美国技术,这是非常大胆的说法,几乎是妄想了。

Second, aggregate trade deficits in the US are inevitable, given its low savings rate – both public and private. The question is with whom. By contrast, Chinese workers save. Arguably, all China got from its hard work are some “IOUs” issued by the US government. Instead of the US “building” China, a more accurate picture is perhaps of Chinese workers sustaining the profligate spending in the US.

第二,美国的贸易赤字是必然的,因为储蓄率低,包括公共和私人的。相反,中国工人存钱。中国通过努力劳动所得的就只是美国政府发行的一些“欠条”。与其说是美国建设中国,还不如说是中国工人维持了美国人挥霍无度的开销。

Third, China’s strong foundation in human capital is a key factor in its development. China was able to exploit globalisation with its well-trained workforce, the foundation of which was laid long before US companies entered China. Ahead of more developed countries, and unique for a poor country, China achieved near universal primary education before economic reforms started. Moreover, China was able to use its entire workforce, while Japan and South Korea were using effectively only half of theirs in their patriarchal societies. In many ways, China was built by its own skilled workforce.

第三,中国强大的人力资本基础是其发展的关键因素。中国有能力通过其熟练劳动力来从全球化中获益,这个基础早在美国企业进入中国之前就已经铺就了。在经济改革开始之前,中国就已经实现了普遍的初等教育,这领先于更发达的国家,在穷国当中也是独树一帜。此外,中国有能力使用其所有的劳动力,而在重男轻女的日本和韩国,他们只能动员一半的劳动力。所以多方面来看,中国是靠自己的熟练劳动力建立起来的。

Fourth, China’s solid infrastructure is also a key competitive advantage. This, together with its skilled workforce, makes China a favoured manufacturing location, one not easily replaceable even in the midst of the US-China trade war. Export earnings played a role in financing China’s infrastructure in the early days of its economic reforms. In this century, the bulk of China’s infrastructure was financed at the local level, by land sales or collateralisation. US-China trade was among several factors that sparked China’s growth but was far from the key fuel behind China’s spectacular infrastructure development.

第四,中国强大的基建也是重要的竞争优势。加上熟练劳动力,使得中国变得受到公司企业的偏好,即使现在中美贸易战,也没有国家能轻易取代中国。在中国经济改革的初期,出口收入在中国的基建建设上扮演着一定的作用。本世纪,大部分的中国基建是地方的投资,主要通过土地销售或者担保。中美贸易是中国经济发展的众多因素之一,但远不是中国基建建设的关键驱动因素。

For these and other reasons, it is far-fetched to suggest that the US rebuilt China, as both US President Donald Trump and Vice-President Mike Pence have done.

这些原因再加上其他原因,所以我们不能说是美国重建了中国。川普和彭斯都说美国重建了中国。

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